Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
871K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.8%.
Measured over 871K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 871K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 871K
- Best context
- 56.7% at 2500+ Blitz
- Worst context
- 47.5% at 1400-1599 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 55.4% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 34.6% expected score (18 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,435 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (2,369 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (424 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.3% expected score (60 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (8,505 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (7,055 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,441 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 62.2% expected score (19 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.7% expected score (151 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (18,101 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (20,272 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (3,551 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (102 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (310 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (35,303 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (50,788 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (8,617 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (295 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.8% expected score (315 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (60,821 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (98,961 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (18,060 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (870 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (73,540 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (139,090 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (27,177 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (1,200 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (74,460 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (100,398 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (17,420 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (463 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 34.5% expected score (21 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (49,758 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (35,358 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (3,593 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.1% expected score (67 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (7,973 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,689 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (53 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation scores 49.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.6% and 49.8% — from 871K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 871K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 871K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.2% (9.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (456K games) against 50.2% in Rapid (80K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 49.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 48.8%, draws 1.9% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 47.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 95K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 179K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.9%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 241K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 47.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 1.4% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 959 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.1% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 331K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 47.6%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 456K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 47.5%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 47.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.6% of its games and loses 48.2%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.