Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
530K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.9%.
Measured over 530K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 530K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 530K
- Best context
- 51.7% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 41.2% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.9% at 0-999, 45.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.4% expected score (17 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (3,155 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5,015 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,366 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (8,927 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (12,061 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,334 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (93 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (17,773 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (24,351 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (6,420 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (163 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (174 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (30,125 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (45,965 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (10,703 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (492 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (275 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (42,271 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (67,953 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (14,788 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (707 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (174 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (47,273 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (62,149 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (14,497 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (552 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (36,272 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (30,964 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (6,019 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (148 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (21,601 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (9,311 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,181 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (3,117 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (657 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation scores 49.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.7% and 49.9% — from 530K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 530K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation, Black wins 47.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 530K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 50.6% (125K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 49.4% in Blitz (258K games) against 48.8% in Rapid (58K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 49.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 49K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 126K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.4%, draws 4.2% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 125K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.4%, draws 5.2% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 40.2%, draws 6.9% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.7%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.4% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 801 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.1%, draws 3.0% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 211K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.4%. It rests on 258K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 58K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.8%, draws 5.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 47.9% of its games and loses 48.3%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.