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Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Normal Variation

530K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.8%Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.9%Based on 530K games
0%49.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.7% – 49.9%
Outcome Distribution
47.9%3.8%48.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
2...Nf6
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
Analyzen=530K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.7% and 49.9%), based on 530K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.0% win rate (9,561 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.7% win rate (24,398 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.2% win rate (48,800 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (87,459 games)
  • 1600-1799: 48.5% win rate (125,994 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.4% win rate (124,645 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.8% win rate (73,434 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.4% win rate (32,119 games)
  • 2500+: 40.2% win rate (3,810 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.2% win rate (801 games)
  • Bullet: 49.1% win rate (210,514 games)
  • Blitz: 47.2% win rate (258,426 games)
  • Rapid: 46.4% win rate (58,342 games)
  • Classical: 45.8% win rate (2,137 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.4% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (3,155 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5,015 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (1,366 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (8,927 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (12,061 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (3,334 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (17,773 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (24,351 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (6,420 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (163 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (174 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (30,125 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (45,965 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (10,703 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (492 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (42,271 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (67,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (14,788 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.3% expected score (707 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (174 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (47,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (62,149 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (14,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.1% expected score (552 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (36,272 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (30,964 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (6,019 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (21,601 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (9,311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.8% expected score (19 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.4% expected score (3,117 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (657 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Dutch Defense: Hopton Attack
54.0%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 530K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (3.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (48.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.4%) by 0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 9.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 87K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 126K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 125K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.5%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.5%-51.3%) win rate for white (801 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.1%) win rate for white (211K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white (258K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-49.2%) win rate for white (58K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 47.4%-50.9%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Normal Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.3% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.