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Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.9%

45%60%
Floor53.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.5%.

Measured over 16K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 16K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
16K
Best context
55.6% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
49.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.1%
Draws
4.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Classical best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 53.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (805 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (246 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 86.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (690 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (635 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,180 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (918 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (222 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation scores 53.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 54.5% — from 16K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
16K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate?

Playing the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation, White wins 51.4%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 57.0% (377 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.7% in Blitz (9.2K games) against 58.7% in Rapid (2.2K games).

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 147 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 377 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 740 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.5%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 3.8K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.7%, draws 5.5% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 46.7%, draws 14.4% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 385 Lichess games, which average 45 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 49.8%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.6%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.0%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 55.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 38.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 61.4%, draws 8.1% and loses 30.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.5%. It rests on 128 Lichess games.

Is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.4% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.