56K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 48.4%), based on 56K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 45% → 38%
Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Rapid (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 56K rated games from Lichess.
The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.2% win rate for white (3.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (51.9%) outperforms Classical (46.3%) by 5.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 47.9%-57.6%) win rate for white, based on 282 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 731 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.8%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.6%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 50.8%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.4%) win rate for white (20K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.4%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-53.2%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.8%.
In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 40.9%-51.8%) win rate for white (222 Lichess games). Draw rate is 11.0%.
The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.