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Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation

56K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.0%

40%55%
Floor47.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.

Measured over 56K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 56K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
56K
Best context
50.6% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
41.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Average game length
37 moves
Games that end decisively
94.3%
Draws
5.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.2% at 0-999, 37.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (303 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (608 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (606 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (238 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (1,110 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,600 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (449 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (1,949 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,389 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (704 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (3,176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (6,218 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (1,183 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.6% expected score (81 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,350 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (8,664 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (1,197 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 48.2% expected score (53 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (6,174 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (8,657 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.2% expected score (2,311 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.3% expected score (1,090 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 29.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Continuations (4)
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation
48.7%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Matulovic Variation
46.7%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Carlsbad Variation
49.9%
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Karlsbad Variation
51.2%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation scores 48.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 48.4% — from 56K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
56K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate?

Playing the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Black wins 45.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 56K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 49.2% (11K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (31K games) against 44.7% in Rapid (4.7K games).

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation has a sharpness score of 94.3 (decisive), meaning 94.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.0%. It rests on 282 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 731 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.5%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 45.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.2K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.7%, draws 4.5% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.7% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.5%, draws 6.9% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 38.3%, draws 9.6% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 6.3% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 31K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 41.2%, draws 6.8% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 42.7%, draws 11.0% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 222 Lichess games.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 45.1% of its games and loses 49.2%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.