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Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation

34K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

49.6%

45%55%
Floor49.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.1%.

Measured over 34K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 34K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
34K
Best context
55.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Worst context
41.4% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.3%
Draws
3.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.4% at 0-999, 58.8% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (587 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (2,136 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.0% expected score (658 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (893 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (714 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (1,772 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.7% expected score (150 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 73.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (1,369 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (2,385 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (824 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.4% expected score (97 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (695 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.2% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (1,806 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,547 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (686 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (266 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.1% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (987 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 60.0% expected score (144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (120 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.0% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation scores 49.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.2% and 50.1% — from 34K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
34K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate?

Playing the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation, White wins 47.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 48.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 34K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 62.4% (197 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.0% in Blitz (18K games) against 48.4% in Rapid (5.6K games).

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.5%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 45.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 46.4%, draws 3.5% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 3.4K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 48.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.1%. It rests on 5.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 48.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 59.2%, draws 6.3% and loses 34.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.4%. It rests on 197 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 48.5%, draws 2.3% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 47.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 46.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 44.9%, draws 6.2% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 392 Lichess games.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.7% of its games and loses 48.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.