Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern
3.0K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.8%.
Measured over 3.0K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.0K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.0K
- Best context
- 57.2% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 56.5% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 61.7% at 0-999, 57.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 27.8% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.3% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (62 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (76 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (247 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (527 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (116 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (192 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.5% expected score (760 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (128 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.8% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (142 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (340 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (45 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 65.7% expected score (24 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (17 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern scores 55.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 56.8% — from 3.0K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.0K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern, White wins 53.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 3.0K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.9% in Blitz (2.0K games) against 54.2% in Rapid (346 games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern?
The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 56.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 39.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 105 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 55.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 357 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 790 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.3%, draws 3.5% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 49.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 527 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 620 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 346 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Modern is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.5% of its games and loses 42.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.