Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation
2.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.5%.
Measured over 2.7K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.7K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.7K
- Best context
- 54.4% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 31 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.0%
- Draws
- 5.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 31.2% at 0-999, 38.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (19 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.8% expected score (44 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (81 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (109 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (177 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (28 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (129 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (392 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (192 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (728 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (72 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (214 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (239 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 28.0% expected score (28 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 48.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.3% and 50.5% — from 2.7K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.7K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 48.9% (range, 90% confident: 47.3% – 50.5%) for Black, based on 2.7K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation performs best at 1800-1999, where it scores 53.1% for Black (590 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Blitz (50.7%) outperforms Rapid (43.0%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 41.8% (range, 90% confident: 35.3% – 48.4%) for Black, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 42.3% (range, 90% confident: 37.8% – 46.9%) for Black, based on 316 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 49.7% – 56.4%) for Black, based on 590 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 51.6% (range, 90% confident: 49.0% – 54.2%) for Black, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 48.0% (range, 90% confident: 44.2% – 51.7%) for Black, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 46.7% (range, 90% confident: 43.7% – 49.7%) for Black (737 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 50.7% (range, 90% confident: 48.7% – 52.7%) for Black (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation scores 43.0% (range, 90% confident: 37.7% – 48.3%) for Black (232 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 48.6% (range, 90% confident: 47.0% – 50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.