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Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation

2.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 50.5%Based on 2.7K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.3% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
46.4%5.0%48.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...b6
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation
Analyzen=2.7K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.0%

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 48.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.3% and 50.5%), based on 2.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · Rapid best · Blitz worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 31% → 23%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.0% win rate (13 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.8% win rate (33 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.8% win rate (78 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.3% win rate (151 games)
  • 1600-1799: 40.5% win rate (316 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.0% win rate (590 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (993 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.9% win rate (481 games)
  • 2500+: 22.6% win rate (14 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (48%), worst in Classical (37%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 44.8% win rate (737 games)
  • Blitz: 47.9% win rate (1,692 games)
  • Rapid: 40.9% win rate (232 games)
  • Classical: 36.8% win rate (8 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 38.5% expected score (81 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 41.4% expected score (109 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (177 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (28 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.3% expected score (129 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (392 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (192 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (728 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 39.8% expected score (72 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (239 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 28.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 61.0% win rate for white (78 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (55.0%) outperforms Blitz (46.5%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 56.7% (90% CI: 50.1%-63.3%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 51.3%-60.5%) win rate for white, based on 316 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 43.9% (90% CI: 40.5%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 590 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 46.0% (90% CI: 43.4%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 48.4%-54.4%) win rate for white (737 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-48.5%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-60.4%) win rate for white (232 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Nimzowitsch Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.