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Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation

1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.2%Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 49.1%Based on 1.9K games
0%47.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.4% – 49.1%
Outcome Distribution
44.5%5.4%50.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Be7
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=1.9K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.4% and 49.1%), based on 1.9K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 31%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 38.5% win rate (5 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.9% win rate (30 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (83 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (181 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.8% win rate (362 games)
  • 2000-2199: 43.7% win rate (599 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.0% win rate (557 games)
  • 2500+: 31.1% win rate (90 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (18%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 33.3% win rate (6 games)
  • Bullet: 48.7% win rate (431 games)
  • Blitz: 43.2% win rate (1,297 games)
  • Rapid: 45.4% win rate (167 games)
  • Classical: 17.6% win rate (7 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199———
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (44 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (49 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (111 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (16 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (234 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (416 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (57 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (108 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (409 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 38.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 32.7% expected score (65 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 62.8% win rate for white (90 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (50.9%) outperforms Rapid (47.2%) by 3.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 41.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 181 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-54.0%) win rate for white, based on 362 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 46.2%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 599 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 45.9%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 557 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.2%) win rate for white (431 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 48.6%-53.1%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 40.9%-53.5%) win rate for white (167 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.4%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.