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Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation

9.8K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.6%Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.5%Based on 9.8K games
0%48.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.8% – 49.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.7%5.8%48.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...a5
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation
Analyzen=9.8K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 48.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.8% and 49.5%), based on 9.8K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 23% → 39%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 23.1% win rate (5 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (18 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.8% win rate (59 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (159 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.8% win rate (626 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (1,375 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.5% win rate (3,361 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.3% win rate (3,925 games)
  • 2500+: 39.3% win rate (282 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Blitz (46%), worst in Classical (36%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (2,237 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (6,889 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (648 games)
  • Classical: 36.0% win rate (36 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (68 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 40.2% expected score (239 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (335 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (46 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.9% expected score (276 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (965 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (545 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (2,555 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (251 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (913 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (2,802 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (144 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 9.8K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 56.0% win rate for white (626 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.6%) outperforms Rapid (49.2%) by 0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 56.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 626 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 45.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 48.2%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 282 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 47.9%-51.3%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.0%-49.0%) win rate for white (6.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.4%) win rate for white (648 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Buenos Aires Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.