Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation
6.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
52.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.9%.
Measured over 6.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 5.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 6.9K
- Best context
- 55.7% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.9% at 2500+ Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 94.8%
- Draws
- 5.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 0-999, 49.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | ||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (22 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 62.2% expected score (93 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (114 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 69.4% expected score (14 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (172 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (372 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (45 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (352 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (752 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (144 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (552 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (1,239 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 62.8% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (543 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (1,448 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (66 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 44.9% expected score (625 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (119 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation scores 52.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.0% and 52.9% — from 6.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 6.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation, White wins 49.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 6.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation performs best for White at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 58.3% (222 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 52.8% in Blitz (4.1K games) against 57.4% in Rapid (412 games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation has a sharpness score of 94.8 (decisive), meaning 94.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 57.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 222 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.6% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 593 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 47.3%, draws 6.6% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 2.1K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 42.7%, draws 7.2% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 744 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 50.1%, draws 5.3% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 53.8%, draws 7.1% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 412 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.3% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.