Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System
586 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.4%.
Measured over 586 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 586 games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 586
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 37 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.1%
- Draws
- 4.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.7% at 1400-1599, 42.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | ||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (91 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (191 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (80 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System scores 51.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 54.4% — from 586 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 586+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System, Black wins 48.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 586 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 55.5% (145 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System?
The Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.2%, draws 6.5% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 145 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 47.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 292 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 105 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 49.2%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 162 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 48.8%, draws 6.2% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 395 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Hort-Antoshin System is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.6% of its games and loses 46.6%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.