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Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation

84K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.2%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.5%Based on 84K games
0%48.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.5%
Outcome Distribution
45.0%6.3%48.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...c6
Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation
Analyzen=84K
Avg Length38 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.5%), based on 84K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 54% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 54.4% win rate (38 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (135 games)
  • 1200-1399: 43.4% win rate (421 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.8% win rate (1,597 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.9% win rate (5,219 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.0% win rate (14,751 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (26,784 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.8% win rate (28,515 games)
  • 2500+: 40.7% win rate (6,606 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (47%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 45.5% win rate (15 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (28,638 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (49,757 games)
  • Rapid: 41.5% win rate (5,386 games)
  • Classical: 35.9% win rate (270 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (65 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 27.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (181 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 35.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (719 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (749 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (1,793 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (2,996 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (383 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (41 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (3,928 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (9,541 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (1,186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (89 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (7,029 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (17,809 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,839 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (10,351 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (16,449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (1,686 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 23.8% expected score (29 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (4,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (1,954 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.1% expected score (94 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 84K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (421 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (55.8%) outperforms Bullet (48.6%) by 7.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 38 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 40.3%-54.3%) win rate for white, based on 135 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 50.6%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 421 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 47.0%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.7%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 29K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 44 moves with a 10.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-49.1%) win rate for white (29K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.9%) win rate for white (50K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.2%) win rate for white (5.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation has a 55.8% (90% CI: 50.8%-60.7%) win rate for white (270 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.3%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Leningrad Variation, Warsaw Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.