Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation
10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.9%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.7%.
Measured over 10K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 7.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 10K
- Best context
- 52.7% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 48.2% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 92.3%
- Draws
- 7.7%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 64.4% at 0-999, 35.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (52 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (122 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (187 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (246 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,147 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (133 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (573 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,658 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (287 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (887 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,421 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (183 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (152 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (147 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation scores 49.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.1% and 50.7% — from 10K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 10K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation, Black wins 46.0%, draws 7.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 10K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 59.3% (95 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.5% in Blitz (7.6K games) against 50.6% in Rapid (655 games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.0%. It rests on 344 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.3%, draws 7.4% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 8.8% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 4.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 45.5%, draws 6.8% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 32.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 59.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 36.4%. It rests on 303 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.6%, draws 5.0% and loses 46.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 45.3%, draws 8.4% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 46.7%, draws 7.7% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 655 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.0% of its games and loses 46.3%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.