TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation

10K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score49.9%Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.7%Based on 10K games
0%49.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.1% – 50.7%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%7.7%46.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...c6
Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation
Analyzen=10K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness92%
Draw Rate7.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 49.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.1% and 50.7%), based on 10K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 63% → 32%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 63.0% win rate (12 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.7% win rate (13 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.8% win rate (42 games)
  • 1400-1599: 58.5% win rate (95 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.1% win rate (344 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (1,539 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.1% win rate (4,531 games)
  • 2200-2499: 45.5% win rate (3,494 games)
  • 2500+: 32.3% win rate (303 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (49%), worst in Classical (44%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 48.6% win rate (2,036 games)
  • Blitz: 45.3% win rate (7,648 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (655 games)
  • Classical: 43.7% win rate (34 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (52 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (122 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (187 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (246 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (1,147 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (133 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (573 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (3,658 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (287 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (887 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (2,421 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (183 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (152 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 31.8% expected score (147 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 10K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 59.6% win rate for white (303 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (46.3%) outperforms Rapid (45.6%) by 0.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a sharpness score of 92.3 (decisive), meaning 92.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 344 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 41.3%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 43.9%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 59.6% (90% CI: 55.0%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 303 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.5% (90% CI: 44.6%-48.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.4%-47.2%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation has a 45.6% (90% CI: 42.4%-48.8%) win rate for white (655 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.7%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Staunton Gambit, Chigorin Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.3% (90% CI: 45.5%-47.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.