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Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.6%

40%55%
Floor45.1%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 46.1%.

Measured over 26K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 5.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 26K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
26K
Best context
49.2% at 1800-1999 Bullet
Worst context
43.0% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
36 moves
Games that end decisively
94.7%
Draws
5.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.1% at 0-999, 44.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 36.6% expected score (121 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (940 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (4,153 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (5,100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 40.8% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (2,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.1% expected score (3,368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 38.7% expected score (426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.6% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.4% expected score (340 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Continuations (1)
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation
50.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation scores 45.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 45.1% and 46.1% — from 26K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
26K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate?

Playing the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Black wins 42.9%, draws 5.3% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 47.1% (6.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 45.3% in Blitz (16K games) against 43.4% in Rapid (2.6K games).

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.4%, draws 0.3% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 145 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 45.1%, draws 4.1% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 448 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 43.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.1% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.1%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.1%, draws 6.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 5.8K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 39.9%, draws 7.2% and loses 52.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 869 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 44.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 7.5K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 42.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 40.0%, draws 6.7% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.4%. It rests on 2.6K Lichess games.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 41.6%, draws 5.6% and loses 52.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 151 Lichess games.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 42.9% of its games and loses 51.8%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.