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Analyzer

Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation

4.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.3%Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 47.6%Based on 4.1K games
0%46.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.0% – 47.6%
Outcome Distribution
43.5%5.5%51.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Ne4
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
Analyzen=4.1K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.5%

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 46.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.0% and 47.6%), based on 4.1K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 14% → 36%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 14.3% win rate (2 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (9 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.2% win rate (38 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.8% win rate (137 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (394 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (920 games)
  • 2000-2199: 41.9% win rate (1,343 games)
  • 2200-2499: 41.3% win rate (1,102 games)
  • 2500+: 36.1% win rate (194 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (47%), worst in Rapid (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 43.5% win rate (1,198 games)
  • Blitz: 43.8% win rate (2,576 games)
  • Rapid: 40.7% win rate (329 games)
  • Classical: 47.4% win rate (27 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (88 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (92 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (251 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (205 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.5% expected score (600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (100 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (245 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (982 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (449 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (589 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 39.2% expected score (146 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (48 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (1.3K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.9%) outperforms Blitz (50.2%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 36.8%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 46.0%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 920 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 48.6%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 194 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 9.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.5%-54.3%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.8%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 49.5%-58.5%) win rate for white (329 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.