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Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit

71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score56.2%Range (90% confident): 55.9% – 56.6%Based on 71K games
0%56.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.9% – 56.6%
Outcome Distribution
54.5%3.4%42.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.f3
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
Analyzen=71K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 56.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.9% and 56.6%), based on 71K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.3% win rate (641 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.0% win rate (1,516 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.5% win rate (3,298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.3% win rate (7,449 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.9% win rate (12,486 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.0% win rate (18,153 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.7% win rate (15,697 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.4% win rate (9,855 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (1,562 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 59.8% win rate (334 games)
  • Bullet: 54.3% win rate (24,743 games)
  • Blitz: 54.6% win rate (37,795 games)
  • Rapid: 54.6% win rate (7,583 games)
  • Classical: 52.3% win rate (202 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (223 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (328 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (89 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (539 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (767 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (205 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 73.9% expected score (32 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,081 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (1,693 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (486 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (56 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,147 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (4,121 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,095 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,512 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (6,826 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (1,947 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (64 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (4,925 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (10,833 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (2,262 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (70 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (5,576 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (8,945 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (1,123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (5,484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (3,988 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,256 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (294 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Bladel Variation
45.4%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 71K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 56.0% win rate for white (18K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (59.8%) outperforms Classical (52.3%) by 7.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit?

The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 48.3% (90% CI: 45.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 641 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.1%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 55.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 56.0% (90% CI: 55.4%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.1%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 52.7% (90% CI: 50.6%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 59.8% (90% CI: 55.3%-64.1%) win rate for white (334 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.8%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.0%) win rate for white (38K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.7%-55.6%) win rate for white (7.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-58.1%) win rate for white (202 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-54.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.