Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
71K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.6%.
Measured over 71K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 71K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 71K
- Best context
- 58.6% at 1800-1999 Rapid
- Worst context
- 53.3% at 1000-1199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.6%
- Draws
- 3.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 43.1% at 0-999, 58.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (223 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (328 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (89 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (539 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (767 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.0% expected score (205 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 73.9% expected score (32 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (1,081 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (1,693 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (486 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.3% expected score (56 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (2,147 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (4,121 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (1,095 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (30 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 61.6% expected score (137 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (3,512 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (6,826 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (1,947 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (64 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (63 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (4,925 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (10,833 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (2,262 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (70 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (28 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (5,576 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (8,945 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (1,123 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (9 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (5,484 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (3,988 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.9% expected score (373 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (1,256 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (294 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit scores 56.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.9% and 56.6% — from 71K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 71K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate?
Playing the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit, White wins 54.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 71K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit perform best?
The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 57.7% (18K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 56.6% in Blitz (38K games) against 56.6% in Rapid (7.6K games).
How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit?
The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 48.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 641 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.0%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 55.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 55.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 56.0%, draws 3.4% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 53.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 52.4%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 9.9K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 52.7%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 59.8%, draws 1.0% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.3%. It rests on 334 Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 54.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 25K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.6%, draws 3.9% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 54.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 7.6K Lichess games.
What is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 52.3%, draws 6.1% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 202 Lichess games.
Is the Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit a good opening?
The Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.5% of its games and loses 42.1%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.