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Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation

49K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.3%Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.7%Based on 49K games
0%47.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.0% – 47.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.1%6.3%49.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...g6
Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation
Analyzen=49K
Avg Length37 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.3%

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 47.3% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.0% and 47.7%), based on 49K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (196 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.8% win rate (479 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (978 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.2% win rate (2,114 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (4,034 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.5% win rate (7,855 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.6% win rate (13,247 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.2% win rate (16,581 games)
  • 2500+: 40.2% win rate (3,544 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (34%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 34.2% win rate (38 games)
  • Bullet: 46.2% win rate (13,194 games)
  • Blitz: 43.5% win rate (32,120 games)
  • Rapid: 42.9% win rate (3,499 games)
  • Classical: 41.2% win rate (177 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (43 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (117 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (36 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (137 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (245 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (287 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (519 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (165 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 23.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (672 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (1,144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,125 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (2,417 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.0% expected score (437 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (45 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (2,108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (4,844 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (837 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (60 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (3,053 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (9,247 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (903 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (4,239 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (11,635 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (695 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (1,530 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (1,952 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 49K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (3.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.5%) outperforms Classical (49.6%) by -0.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a sharpness score of 93.7 (decisive), meaning 93.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 43.5%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 196 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 479 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.0%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 978 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (13K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.0%-50.0%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-51.3%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 43.4%-55.7%) win rate for white (177 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Semi-Leningrad Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.