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Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation

9.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.8%Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.6%Based on 9.4K games
0%46.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.9% – 47.6%
Outcome Distribution
44.3%4.9%50.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Qe8
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation
Analyzen=9.4K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 46.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 45.9% and 47.6%), based on 9.4K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.7% win rate (6 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.8% win rate (25 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.4% win rate (94 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (315 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.5% win rate (787 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (1,768 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.1% win rate (2,693 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.1% win rate (2,627 games)
  • 2500+: 43.9% win rate (1,039 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 45.8% win rate (3,588 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (5,202 games)
  • Rapid: 40.1% win rate (539 games)
  • Classical: 45.1% win rate (24 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.8% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (126 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.4% expected score (161 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (26 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (525 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (1,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.5% expected score (186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (809 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,705 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 42.8% expected score (170 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (1,639 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 27.1% expected score (88 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (921 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 35.6% expected score (116 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Queen's Knight Variation
48.2%
Dutch Defense: Rubinstein Variation
47.6%
Dutch Defense: Raphael Variation
51.2%
Dutch Defense: Normal Variation
48.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation
49.1%
Continuations (3)
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Winter Variation
49.3%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Alatortsev-Lisitsyn Line
47.1%
Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line
49.7%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.4K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (2.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.7%) outperforms Bullet (50.4%) by 3.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 45.5%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 315 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 787 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.3%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.7%) win rate for white (3.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-52.0%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 50.2%-57.3%) win rate for white (539 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.0%-51.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.