Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Italian Game: Evans Gambit

174K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
7
6
5
4
3
2
a1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h
6...d6
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

58.6%

45%65%
Floor58.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.8%.

Measured over 174K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 174K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
174K
Best context
63.4% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Worst context
54.8% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.4%
Draws
2.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +23.5% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 61.3% at 0-999, 68.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (2,893 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (2,541 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.8% expected score (1,261 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.9% expected score (7,461 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (7,178 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.9% expected score (19 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (11,467 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (13,221 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 59.8% expected score (5,217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (12,989 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.2% expected score (16,996 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (6,345 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (277 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.9% expected score (12,960 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (17,871 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (5,502 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 60.0% expected score (294 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (10,335 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (14,589 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (3,997 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.6% expected score (176 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.7% expected score (5,714 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (6,200 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (1,432 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.4% expected score (2,452 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.0% expected score (1,002 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.4% expected score (269 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 64.0% expected score (45 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (10)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense
58.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Variation
50.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense
55.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line
50.8%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation
52.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line
46.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation
49.7%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Defense
45.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense
57.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense
54.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit scores 58.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 58.4% and 58.8% — from 174K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
174K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 174K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 63.1% (3.7K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 59.0% in Blitz (80K games) against 57.8% in Rapid (27K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 55.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 42.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 6.7K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 56.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.0%, draws 2.4% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 57.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 57.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 40.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.7%. It rests on 37K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 57.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 39.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.8%. It rests on 29K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 57.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 38.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.5%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 61.2%, draws 3.7% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.1%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 59.7%, draws 6.5% and loses 33.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.9%. It rests on 316 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 57.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 57.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 39.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.0%. It rests on 80K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 58.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.8%. It rests on 956 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 57.3% of its games and loses 40.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.