TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit

1.7K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score38.4%Range (90% confident): 36.5% – 40.4%Based on 1.7K games
0%38.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 36.5% – 40.4%
Outcome Distribution
36.9%3.0%60.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...b5
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit
Analyzen=1.7K
Avg Length27 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 38.4% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 36.5% and 40.4%), based on 1.7K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -23.1% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.7% · Rapid best · Bullet worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 44% → 20%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 43.6% win rate (406 games)
  • 1000-1199: 35.6% win rate (424 games)
  • 1200-1399: 35.1% win rate (356 games)
  • 1400-1599: 32.8% win rate (262 games)
  • 1600-1799: 34.3% win rate (163 games)
  • 1800-1999: 33.8% win rate (74 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.6% win rate (25 games)
  • 2200-2499: 60.0% win rate (6 games)
  • 2500+: 20.0% win rate (1 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (44%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 43.6% win rate (316 games)
  • Blitz: 38.3% win rate (639 games)
  • Rapid: 33.9% win rate (708 games)
  • Classical: 21.1% win rate (53 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199——
2200-2499———
2500+————

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (84 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 42.6% expected score (148 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (174 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (163 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 31.6% expected score (183 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 18.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 38.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 29.6% expected score (150 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (35 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 41.2% expected score (106 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.9% expected score (100 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (50 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 33.5% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 39.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 60.1% (90% CI: 58.1%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 63.1% win rate for white (356 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (63.4%) outperforms Bullet (53.7%) by 9.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 49.8%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 406 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 60.3% (90% CI: 56.4%-64.2%) win rate for white, based on 424 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 63.1% (90% CI: 58.8%-67.2%) win rate for white, based on 356 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 63.2% (90% CI: 58.3%-68.0%) win rate for white, based on 262 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 62.9% (90% CI: 56.7%-69.0%) win rate for white, based on 163 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 53.7% (90% CI: 49.1%-58.3%) win rate for white (316 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 58.5% (90% CI: 55.3%-61.7%) win rate for white (639 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit has a 63.4% (90% CI: 60.4%-66.3%) win rate for white (708 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit is statistically favors white with a 60.1% (90% CI: 58.1%-62.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.