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Italian Game

142 variations · 90M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Italian Game gives White a 52.2% expected score — a strong opening choice.

With a minimum advantage of 4.3%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.

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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.2%Aggregated from 142 variations
0%52.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.2% – 52.2%
ContextOverall · n=90M
Outcome Distribution
50.3%3.7%46.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.Bc4
Italian Game
Variations142
Games (Context)90M
Avg Length32 moves
Draw Rate3.7%

What Should I Play?

Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall

#1Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Rosentreter VariationTop Pick
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.O-O Bc5 5.d4 Bxd4 6.Nxd4 Nxd4 7.Bg5 h6 8.Bh4 g5 9.f4
Min adv +46.7% · n=11K
74.1%
#2Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5
Min adv +42.6% · n=720K
71.4%
#3Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.d4 exd4 6.cxd4 Bb4+ 7.Nc3 Nxe4 8.O-O Nxc3 9.bxc3 Bxc3 10.Ba3
Min adv +42.5% · n=38K
71.7%
#4Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fried Liver Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5 d5 5.exd5 Nxd5 6.Nxf7
Min adv +37.1% · n=1.4M
68.6%
#5Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Nf6 5.O-O Bc5 6.e5
Min adv +25.5% · n=306K
62.9%
#6Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.d4
Min adv +19.1% · n=531K
59.7%
#7Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Krause Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.d4 exd4 5.O-O Bc5 6.e5 Ng4 7.c3
Min adv +18.6% · n=33K
59.7%
#8Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Yurdansky Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Nf6 5.O-O Nxe4 6.Re1 d5 7.Bxd5 Qxd5 8.Nc3 Qa5 9.Nxe4 Be6 10.Bg5 h6 11.Bh4 g5 12.Nf6+ Ke7 13.b4
Min adv +18.4% · n=117
66.5%
#9Italian Game: Evans Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.b4
Min adv +16.8% · n=174K
58.6%
#10Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.d4
Min adv +16.4% · n=557K
58.3%

Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

What is the Italian Game expected score for White?

Snapshot

Overall, the Italian Game family has a 52.2% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.2% and 52.2%), aggregated from 142 variations and 90M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.4% win rate (5,756,387 games)
  • 1000-1199: 51.1% win rate (11,625,946 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (17,031,624 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.3% win rate (19,311,324 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.0% win rate (17,082,001 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.7% win rate (11,653,823 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.5% win rate (5,175,205 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.8% win rate (1,892,185 games)
  • 2500+: 45.9% win rate (321,755 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~53%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.1% win rate (60,770 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (20,698,808 games)
  • Blitz: 50.2% win rate (46,336,429 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (21,928,216 games)
  • Classical: 50.7% win rate (826,027 games)

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · White expected scores

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (5,741 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,377,310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,671,275 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (1,689,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (12,709 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (13,164 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,712,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (5,816,397 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (3,027,759 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (56,016 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (18,539 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,659,184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (8,725,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (4,484,708 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (143,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (15,340 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,961,976 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (10,022,274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (5,057,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (254,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (5,121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,539,032 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (9,126,777 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (4,180,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (230,942 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,677,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (6,349,819 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (2,521,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (103,013 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (786 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,632,907 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,716,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (804,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (20,837 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (182 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (919,325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (815,621 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (154,221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (2,836 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (218,964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (92,516 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (8,968 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,301 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (142)

1
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Rosentreter Variation11K games
74.1%
2
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack720K games
71.4%
3
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation38K games
71.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fried Liver Attack1.4M games
68.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack306K games
62.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation2.5K games
62.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit1.7K games
61.6%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack531K games
59.7%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation1.7K games
61.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Krause Variation33K games
59.7%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense478K games
59.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Yurdansky Attack117 games
66.5%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Spielmann Defense206K games
59.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit174K games
58.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation557K games
58.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation116K games
58.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense54K games
58.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mayet Defense5.6K games
58.5%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit99K games
57.0%
Italian Game4.1M games
56.7%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit204K games
56.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Lolli Attack121K games
56.7%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense136K games
56.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack18K games
56.5%
Italian Game: Deutz Gambit204K games
55.8%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense39K games
55.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Perreux Variation502K games
55.2%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack Accepted17K games
55.7%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation2.5K games
56.6%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Laroche Variation5.8K games
55.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack, Normal Variation1.5M games
54.5%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit41K games
54.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Bishop Sacrifice Line330K games
54.4%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line989K games
54.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined339K games
54.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Lucchini Gambit242K games
54.2%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Albin Gambit1.3M games
53.9%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation3.1K games
55.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation93K games
54.0%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Eisinger Variation239 games
58.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack68K games
53.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation2.7K games
55.0%
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense10M games
53.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation78K games
53.6%
Italian Game: Classical Variation3.2M games
53.4%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation905K games
53.4%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Italian Four Knights Variation4.4M games
52.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, with d6889K games
52.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening5.5M games
52.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Greco's Attack466K games
52.7%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, with a6171K games
52.8%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Tartakower Attack25K games
53.1%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo2.5M games
52.5%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation7.9K games
53.4%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Anderssen Attack, Main Line1.5K games
54.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubow Variation344K games
52.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Morphy Attack6.9K games
53.1%
Italian Game: Paris Defense8.3M games
52.1%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, with a57.0K games
53.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line94K games
52.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Variation219K games
52.0%
Italian Game: Rosentreter Gambit368K games
51.9%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Cracow Variation9.7K games
52.6%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense194K games
51.8%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation10.0K games
52.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation160K games
51.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Blackburne Variation48K games
51.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Steinitz Variation19K games
52.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bogoljubov Variation17K games
51.9%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal5.1M games
51.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Anderssen Attack164K games
51.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Stone-Ware Variation60K games
51.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense244K games
51.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Kloss Gambit25K games
51.2%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Knight Sacrifice Line567K games
50.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Paoli Variation1.2K games
53.0%
Italian Game: Jerome Gambit263K games
50.4%
Italian Game: Hungarian Defense1.8M games
50.2%
Italian Game: Hungarian Defense, Tartakower Variation26K games
50.6%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, Albin Variation127K games
50.2%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense3.2M games
49.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack115K games
49.8%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo4.3M games
49.5%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Accepted12K games
50.2%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, with h61.6M games
49.5%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, La Bourdonnais Variation668K games
49.4%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack449K games
49.0%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano7.0M games
49.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Bishop Check Line1.5M games
48.9%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Therkatz-Herzog Variation2.3K games
50.5%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack167K games
48.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit3.2M games
48.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Colman Variation33K games
49.0%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation50K games
48.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Bronstein Defense25K games
48.7%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, Main Line1.9K games
49.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense, Main Line64K games
48.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense, Main Line1.7K games
49.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Suhle Defense148K games
48.0%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Double Gambit Accepted91K games
47.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fraser Attack122 games
54.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Dufresne Defense3.8K games
48.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation2.9K games
49.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Hein Countergambit3.4K games
48.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Richardson Attack104 games
55.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined278K games
47.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Variation, Trencianske-Teplice Gambit1.4K games
49.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Rubinstein Variation603 games
50.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation6.0K games
47.9%
Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit2.4M games
46.8%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Defense59K games
46.5%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation36K games
46.6%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit167K games
46.4%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack418 games
50.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Anderssen Variation, Cordel Line33K games
46.5%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Main Line104K games
46.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation2.5K games
46.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit549K games
45.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense502K games
45.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation330K games
44.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation4.6K games
45.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sanders-Alapin Variation364 games
48.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Leonhardt Countergambit2.5K games
45.5%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line71K games
44.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation9.1K games
44.6%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense12K games
44.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ulvestad Variation, Kurkin Gambit561 games
46.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Tarrasch Variation282 games
48.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation19K games
43.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz Variation819K games
42.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knorre Variation127 games
50.0%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit392 games
46.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation897 games
44.7%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Holzhausen Attack2.1K games
42.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Berger Variation252 games
46.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fegatello Attack, Leonhardt Variation521 games
43.4%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation770 games
42.5%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Loman Defense2.0K games
41.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Keidansky Variation1.3K games
40.6%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Lange Variation1.0K games
39.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Sokolsky Variation150 games
43.1%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Dubois Variation39K games
27.5%
Analyze Italian Game PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game win rate?

The Italian Game family has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, aggregated from 142 variations and 90M rated games from Lichess.

How many Italian Game variations are there?

This analysis covers 142 Italian Game variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Italian Game perform best?

The Italian Game family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 51.1% win rate for white (12M games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Italian Game better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.1%) outperforms Blitz (50.2%) by 2.9% across all Italian Game variations.

How sharp is the Italian Game?

Italian Game games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Italian Game a good opening family?

The Italian Game family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.3%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 142 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.