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Italian Game

142 variations · 90M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · Overall

52.2%

45%60%
Floor52.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 90M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong opening choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 90M games

Rank among the families White can choose here
#21 of 56
Games in this context
90M
Best context
58.3% at 2200-2499 Classical
Worst context
49.3% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Variations measured
142
Average game length
32 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

White · Overall
#1Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Rosentreter VariationBest here
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.O-O Bc5 5.d4 Bxd4 6.Nxd4 Nxd4 7.Bg5 h6 8.Bh4 g5 9.f4
Floor 73.4% · 11K games
74.1%
#2Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5
Floor 71.3% · 720K games
71.4%
#3Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.d4 exd4 6.cxd4 Bb4+ 7.Nc3 Nxe4 8.O-O Nxc3 9.bxc3 Bxc3 10.Ba3
Floor 71.3% · 38K games
71.7%
#4Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fried Liver Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.Ng5 d5 5.exd5 Nxd5 6.Nxf7
Floor 68.6% · 1.4M games
68.6%
#5Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Nf6 5.O-O Bc5 6.e5
Floor 62.8% · 306K games
62.9%
#6Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.c3 Nf6 5.d4
Floor 59.6% · 531K games
59.7%
#7Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Krause Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.d4 exd4 5.O-O Bc5 6.e5 Ng4 7.c3
Floor 59.3% · 33K games
59.7%
#8Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Yurdansky Attack
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.d4 exd4 4.Bc4 Nf6 5.O-O Nxe4 6.Re1 d5 7.Bxd5 Qxd5 8.Nc3 Qa5 9.Nxe4 Be6 10.Bg5 h6 11.Bh4 g5 12.Nf6+ Ke7 13.b4
Floor 59.2% · 117 games
66.5%
#9Italian Game: Evans Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Bc5 4.b4
Floor 58.4% · 174K games
58.6%
#10Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 Nc6 3.Bc4 Nf6 4.d4
Floor 58.2% · 557K games
58.3%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.2% at 0-999, 53.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (5,741 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,377,310 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,671,275 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (1,689,352 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (12,709 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (13,164 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,712,610 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (5,816,397 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (3,027,759 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.9% expected score (56,016 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (18,539 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (3,659,184 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (8,725,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (4,484,708 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (143,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (15,340 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (3,961,976 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (10,022,274 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.2% expected score (5,057,261 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (254,473 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.8% expected score (5,121 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (3,539,032 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (9,126,777 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (4,180,129 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (230,942 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (1,891 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (2,677,500 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (6,349,819 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (2,521,600 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (103,013 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.9% expected score (786 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,632,907 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (2,716,457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (804,218 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.1% expected score (20,837 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (182 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (919,325 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (815,621 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (154,221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (2,836 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (218,964 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (92,516 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (8,968 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (1,301 games)

142 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Rosentreter Variation11K games
74.1%Floor 73.4%
2
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack720K games
71.4%Floor 71.3%
3
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation38K games
71.7%Floor 71.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fried Liver Attack1.4M games
68.6%Floor 68.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack306K games
62.9%Floor 62.8%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Pincus Variation2.5K games
62.0%Floor 60.4%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Fontaine Countergambit1.7K games
61.6%Floor 59.7%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Attack531K games
59.7%Floor 59.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Bernstein Variation1.7K games
61.3%Floor 59.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Max Lange Attack, Krause Variation33K games
59.7%Floor 59.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, McDonnell Defense478K games
59.3%Floor 59.2%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Yurdansky Attack117 games
66.5%Floor 59.2%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Spielmann Defense206K games
59.1%Floor 58.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit174K games
58.6%Floor 58.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Open Variation557K games
58.3%Floor 58.2%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation116K games
58.4%Floor 58.1%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Compromised Defense54K games
58.2%Floor 57.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mayet Defense5.6K games
58.5%Floor 57.4%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit99K games
57.0%Floor 56.7%
Italian Game4.1M games
56.7%Floor 56.6%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit204K games
56.8%Floor 56.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Lolli Attack121K games
56.7%Floor 56.5%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Pierce Defense136K games
56.4%Floor 56.2%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Waller Attack18K games
56.5%Floor 55.9%
Italian Game: Deutz Gambit204K games
55.8%Floor 55.6%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Mieses Defense39K games
55.8%Floor 55.4%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Perreux Variation502K games
55.2%Floor 55.1%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack Accepted17K games
55.7%Floor 55.0%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation2.5K games
56.6%Floor 55.0%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Laroche Variation5.8K games
55.9%Floor 54.9%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Knight Attack, Normal Variation1.5M games
54.5%Floor 54.4%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit41K games
54.8%Floor 54.3%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Bishop Sacrifice Line330K games
54.4%Floor 54.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line989K games
54.3%Floor 54.2%
Italian Game: Scotch Invitation Declined339K games
54.3%Floor 54.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Lucchini Gambit242K games
54.2%Floor 54.0%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Albin Gambit1.3M games
53.9%Floor 53.8%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation3.1K games
55.3%Floor 53.8%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Harding Variation93K games
54.0%Floor 53.7%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Eisinger Variation239 games
58.8%Floor 53.5%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Therkatz Attack68K games
53.8%Floor 53.5%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Fritz, Gruber Variation2.7K games
55.0%Floor 53.4%
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense10M games
53.3%Floor 53.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Anderssen Variation78K games
53.6%Floor 53.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation3.2M games
53.4%Floor 53.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Canal Variation905K games
53.4%Floor 53.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Italian Four Knights Variation4.4M games
52.8%Floor 52.7%
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Giuoco Pianissimo, with d6889K games
52.8%Floor 52.7%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening5.5M games
52.6%Floor 52.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Greco's Attack466K games
52.7%Floor 52.6%
Every Italian Game variation, by name142
Analyze Italian Game PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game family scores 52.2% for White — we are 90% confident it is 52.2% — from 90M Lichess games across 142 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
90M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game win rate?

Across the Italian Game's 142 variations, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 90M rated games from Lichess.

How many Italian Game variations are there?

142 Italian Game variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Italian Game perform best?

The Italian Game family performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 54.3% (322K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Italian Game better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 52.2% in Blitz (46M games) against 52.5% in Rapid (22M games).

How sharp is the Italian Game?

Italian Game games are 96.3% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 32 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Italian Game a good opening family?

The Italian Game family is good for White overall. Across its games, White wins 50.3% and loses 46.0%. Results differ between its 142 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.