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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation

116K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score41.7%Range (90% confident): 41.4% – 41.9%Based on 116K games
0%41.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 41.4% – 41.9%
Outcome Distribution
40.1%3.2%56.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
8...Nxc3
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation
Analyzen=116K
Avg Length29 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.2%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 41.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 41.4% and 41.9%), based on 116K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 95.6 · Trap factor: +10.9 · n=116K

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (2,275 games)
  • 1000-1199: 42.9% win rate (7,290 games)
  • 1200-1399: 41.1% win rate (17,023 games)
  • 1400-1599: 40.8% win rate (27,910 games)
  • 1600-1799: 39.5% win rate (31,873 games)
  • 1800-1999: 38.1% win rate (21,296 games)
  • 2000-2199: 38.2% win rate (6,793 games)
  • 2200-2499: 40.9% win rate (1,538 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (136 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (41%), worst in UltraBullet (35%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 35.1% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 41.2% win rate (23,496 games)
  • Blitz: 40.3% win rate (56,612 games)
  • Rapid: 39.2% win rate (34,394 games)
  • Classical: 36.6% win rate (1,615 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (614 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (898 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,051 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (3,186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (3,965 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (8,175 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (4,762 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (5,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (14,131 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,066 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (412 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (4,906 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (16,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (10,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (3,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (10,341 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (6,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (3,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (619 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 116K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 58.3% win rate for white (21K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.1%) outperforms Blitz (56.5%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 47.7%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 53.7%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.9%) win rate for white, based on 17K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 57.0%-57.9%) win rate for white, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 58.3% (90% CI: 57.8%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 57.4% (90% CI: 56.4%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 55.6% (90% CI: 48.6%-62.5%) win rate for white, based on 136 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.9% (90% CI: 56.3%-57.4%) win rate for white (23K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 56.5% (90% CI: 56.2%-56.8%) win rate for white (57K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 57.0% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.4%) win rate for white (34K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a 59.1% (90% CI: 57.1%-61.1%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation is statistically favors white with a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.