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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation

116K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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8...Nxc3
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

41.7%

35%55%
Floor41.4%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 41.9%.

Measured over 116K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 116K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
116K
Best context
49.2% at 0-999 Rapid
Worst context
36.3% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −8.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 95.6 · Trap factor: +10.9 · 116K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.6% at 0-999, 39.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (614 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (759 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (898 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.4% expected score (2,051 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (3,186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 40.9% expected score (3,965 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 43.0% expected score (8,175 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.7% expected score (4,762 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (116 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.2% expected score (5,296 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (14,131 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (8,066 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.3% expected score (412 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 42.8% expected score (4,906 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 41.0% expected score (16,318 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (10,020 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.4% expected score (627 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 42.1% expected score (3,815 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 40.3% expected score (10,341 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.5% expected score (6,769 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 33.5% expected score (371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (1,990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 41.5% expected score (3,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 36.3% expected score (1,674 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (58 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (737 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (619 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.3% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation scores 41.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 41.4% and 41.9% — from 116K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
116K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation, Black wins 40.1%, draws 3.2% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 116K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 48.7% (2.3K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 41.9% in Blitz (57K games) against 41.1% in Rapid (34K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 41.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 40.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.3%. It rests on 28K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 39.5%, draws 3.1% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 38.1%, draws 3.6% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 38.2%, draws 4.4% and loses 57.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 6.8K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 40.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 40.4%, draws 4.0% and loses 55.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 136 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 41.2%, draws 2.0% and loses 56.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 40.3%, draws 3.2% and loses 56.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 57K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.1%. It rests on 34K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 36.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 59.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 38.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Greco Variation is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 40.1% of its games and loses 56.8%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.