TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.7%Based on 10M games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
44.7%4.0%51.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...h6
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
Analyzen=10M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 46.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 46.7%), based on 10M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -2.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...h6 · Black wins: 44.7% · n=9.6M

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.2% win rate (535,499 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (1,688,887 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.9% win rate (2,707,435 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.6% win rate (2,805,010 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.6% win rate (1,855,825 games)
  • 1800-1999: 42.3% win rate (724,166 games)
  • 2000-2199: 39.9% win rate (121,941 games)
  • 2200-2499: 38.2% win rate (10,766 games)
  • 2500+: 41.6% win rate (610 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 41.2% win rate (791 games)
  • Bullet: 46.3% win rate (1,296,471 games)
  • Blitz: 44.8% win rate (5,742,027 games)
  • Rapid: 44.1% win rate (3,291,148 games)
  • Classical: 43.0% win rate (119,702 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (129,668 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (309,783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (95,596 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (329 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (217 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (269,211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,010,214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (405,662 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (3,583 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (326,090 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,535,903 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (826,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (18,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (284,231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,513,653 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (960,206 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (46,753 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 28.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (176,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (957,615 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (681,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (39,680 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (81,715 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (350,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (281,247 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (10,243 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (23,866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (58,997 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (38,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (4,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (4,721 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (405 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Italian Four Knights Variation
50.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 56.3% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (58.5%) outperforms Blitz (51.2%) by 7.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 47.5% (90% CI: 47.4%-47.7%) win rate for white, based on 535K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.8M Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 724K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 55.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 122K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 56.3% (90% CI: 55.5%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 50.3% (90% CI: 47.0%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 610 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 58.5% (90% CI: 55.6%-61.4%) win rate for white (791 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (1.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.2% (90% CI: 51.2%-51.3%) win rate for white (5.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (3.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.2%) win rate for white (120K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense is statistically favors white with a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.