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Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
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h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
3...h6
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.7%

40%55%
Floor46.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 10M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 10M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
10M
Best context
54.1% at 1000-1199 Classical
Worst context
29.9% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.0%
Draws
4.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −2.8% · Breakpoint: 0-999

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...h6 · Black wins: 44.7% · 9.6M games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 48.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (129,668 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (309,783 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (95,596 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.0% expected score (329 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (217 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (269,211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,010,214 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (405,662 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (3,583 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 40.6% expected score (227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (326,090 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (1,535,903 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (826,767 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.9% expected score (18,448 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 43.5% expected score (167 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (284,231 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (1,513,653 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (960,206 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.7% expected score (46,753 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 28.1% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (176,941 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (957,615 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (681,545 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (39,680 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (81,715 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (350,953 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (281,247 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (10,243 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (23,866 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 42.8% expected score (58,997 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (38,425 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 29.9% expected score (649 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (4,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 40.7% expected score (4,721 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.9% expected score (1,684 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (405 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (188 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Italian Four Knights Variation
50.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense scores 46.7% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 46.7% — from 10M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
10M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense, Black wins 44.7%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 50.9% (535K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.8% in Blitz (5.7M games) against 46.4% in Rapid (3.3M games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 535K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 44.9%, draws 3.8% and loses 51.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 2.7M Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 2.8M Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 43.6%, draws 4.4% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 1.9M Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 42.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 53.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.7%. It rests on 724K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 39.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.4%. It rests on 122K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 38.2%, draws 5.4% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.0%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 41.6%, draws 8.1% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 610 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.2%, draws 0.3% and loses 58.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 791 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.4% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 44.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 5.7M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 44.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 3.3M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.5%. It rests on 120K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.7% of its games and loses 51.3%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.