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Analyzer

Italian Game: Paris Defense

8.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score47.9%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 47.9%Based on 8.3M games
0%47.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 47.9%
Outcome Distribution
46.0%3.8%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...d6
Italian Game: Paris Defense
Analyzen=8.3M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 47.9%), based on 8.3M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 43%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 46.8% win rate (529,764 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.9% win rate (1,098,332 games)
  • 1200-1399: 46.2% win rate (1,609,443 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.3% win rate (1,904,968 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.0% win rate (1,707,781 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (1,039,979 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.0% win rate (341,059 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (84,433 games)
  • 2500+: 42.5% win rate (9,043 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (48%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.6% win rate (11,131 games)
  • Bullet: 48.0% win rate (2,641,181 games)
  • Blitz: 45.5% win rate (4,270,139 games)
  • Rapid: 44.0% win rate (1,361,232 games)
  • Classical: 41.4% win rate (41,119 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (860 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (153,879 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (262,415 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (111,890 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (720 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (2,348 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (343,048 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (541,544 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (208,004 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (3,388 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (3,463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (503,382 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (817,849 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (275,664 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (9,085 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2,829 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (557,432 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (1,017,433 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (314,165 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (13,109 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (1,137 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (498,069 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (933,082 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (264,744 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (10,749 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 42.8% expected score (364 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (344,811 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (539,554 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (151,617 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (3,633 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.3% expected score (109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (170,398 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (137,928 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (32,235 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 36.2% expected score (389 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 35.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (62,944 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (18,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (2,820 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 37.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (7,218 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (1,721 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 26.2% expected score (9 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Italian Four Knights Variation
50.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Paris Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate?

The Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Paris Defense perform best?

The Italian Game: Paris Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 50.8% win rate for white (1.1M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Paris Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (53.3%) outperforms Bullet (49.3%) by 4.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Paris Defense?

The Italian Game: Paris Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.7%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 530K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.1M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.6M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.0M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 341K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.5%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 84K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.8% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.3%) win rate for white (2.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white (4.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.3%-51.4%) win rate for white (1.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Paris Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Paris Defense has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.9%-53.7%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Paris Defense a good opening?

The Italian Game: Paris Defense is statistically favors white with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.