Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation
38K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
71.7%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 72.1%.
Measured over 38K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 38K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 38K
- Best context
- 78.5% at 1200-1399 Rapid
- Worst context
- 63.6% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Average game length
- 28 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.5%
- Draws
- 2.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 65.8% at 0-999, 59.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.3% expected score (234 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 77.4% expected score (161 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 70.6% expected score (171 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 71.1% expected score (816 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 77.0% expected score (927 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 74.9% expected score (720 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 72.1% expected score (1,498 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 76.0% expected score (2,912 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 78.5% expected score (2,157 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 81.7% expected score (49 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 68.7% expected score (1,751 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 73.1% expected score (4,772 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 74.5% expected score (3,819 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 75.6% expected score (198 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 66.3% expected score (1,455 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 69.5% expected score (4,705 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 72.3% expected score (3,823 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 71.6% expected score (318 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 63.6% expected score (988 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 67.8% expected score (2,455 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 68.9% expected score (2,044 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 71.7% expected score (139 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 69.2% expected score (455 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 67.3% expected score (587 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (420 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (130 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 65.9% expected score (55 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 72.8% expected score (27 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation scores 71.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 71.3% and 72.1% — from 38K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 38K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation, White wins 70.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 27.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.7%. It rests on 38K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 75.9% (6.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 71.8% in Blitz (17K games) against 73.3% in Rapid (13K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation has a sharpness score of 97.5 (very decisive), meaning 97.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 69.6%, draws 1.5% and loses 28.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 70.4%. It rests on 568 Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 73.2%, draws 2.1% and loses 24.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 74.3%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 74.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 23.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 75.9%. It rests on 6.6K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 71.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 26.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 68.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 28.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 70.1%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 66.0%, draws 3.0% and loses 30.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.6%. It rests on 5.6K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 65.2%, draws 3.5% and loses 31.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 67.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 63.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 33.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.3%. It rests on 212 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 67.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 30.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.3%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 70.6%, draws 2.3% and loses 27.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 71.8%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 71.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 25.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 73.3%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 71.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 25.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 72.7%. It rests on 741 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Aitken Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 70.4% of its games and loses 27.1%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.