Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation
7.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.3%.
Measured over 7.9K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 8.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 7.9K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 7.9K
- Best context
- 63.7% at 2500+ Bullet
- Worst context
- 50.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 91.7%
- Draws
- 8.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 62.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | — | |||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (10 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (39 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (90 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (21 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (385 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (518 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (78 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (587 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (1,466 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (214 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (11 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (1,089 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (2,386 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (143 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (514 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.1% expected score (175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 54.3% — from 7.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 7.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation, White wins 49.2%, draws 8.3% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 7.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 64.8% (696 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 54.2% in Blitz (4.7K games) against 45.7% in Rapid (484 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation has a sharpness score of 91.7 (decisive), meaning 91.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 43.1%, draws 2.6% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.4%. It rests on 211 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 993 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 45.9%, draws 9.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.4%, draws 8.8% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 3.6K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 59.9%, draws 9.8% and loses 30.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.8%. It rests on 696 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 50.7%, draws 5.4% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 2.7K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 49.2%, draws 9.9% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 4.7K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 41.3%, draws 8.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 484 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Canal Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 49.2% of its games and loses 42.5%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.