Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation
50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.6%.
Measured over 50K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 50K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 50K
- Best context
- 55.0% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.7% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Average game length
- 35 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.1%
- Draws
- 3.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.1% at 0-999, 39.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (168 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (373 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (316 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (253 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.9% expected score (496 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 41.3% expected score (468 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.5% expected score (25 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (354 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (826 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.2% expected score (769 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (54 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (661 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,002 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,138 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.7% expected score (146 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (933 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (3,665 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,662 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.8% expected score (187 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,601 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (7,515 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (2,463 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.4% expected score (123 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (2,708 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (8,976 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (1,861 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (2,955 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (5,942 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (753 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 17.8% expected score (14 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (201 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.6% expected score (247 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 37.7% expected score (27 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation scores 51.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.8% and 51.6% — from 50K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 50K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 50K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.0% in Blitz (30K games) against 50.4% in Rapid (9.5K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 43.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 861 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 41.7%, draws 2.0% and loses 56.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.8%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 3.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.4% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 6.4K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 50.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.0%, draws 5.0% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 9.7K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 36.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 56.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.1%. It rests on 475 Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.4%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 49.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 30K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 9.5K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 45.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 587 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 49.2% of its games and loses 46.9%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.