TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation

50K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.9%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 49.3%Based on 50K games
0%48.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 49.3%
Outcome Distribution
46.9%3.9%49.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qe7
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation
Analyzen=50K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 48.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 49.3%), based on 50K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 54% → 57%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (861 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.2% win rate (1,243 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.7% win rate (2,008 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.2% win rate (3,949 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (6,449 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.5% win rate (11,703 games)
  • 2000-2199: 44.0% win rate (13,579 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.0% win rate (9,664 games)
  • 2500+: 56.6% win rate (475 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Blitz (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 49.4% win rate (9,834 games)
  • Blitz: 45.9% win rate (30,042 games)
  • Rapid: 47.3% win rate (9,457 games)
  • Classical: 50.0% win rate (587 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (168 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (373 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (316 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (253 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (496 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (468 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (354 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (826 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (769 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.5% expected score (54 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (661 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (2,002 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,138 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.4% expected score (146 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (933 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,665 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (1,662 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.3% expected score (187 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (1,601 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (7,515 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (2,463 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.1% expected score (2,708 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (8,976 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (1,861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (34 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (2,955 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (5,942 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.6% expected score (753 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 82.3% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.4% expected score (201 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.5% expected score (247 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 50K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.2% win rate for white (1.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (49.4%) outperforms Blitz (45.9%) by 3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 50.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 861 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 56.2% (90% CI: 53.9%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.8%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 3.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.9%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.3%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.2%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 56.6% (90% CI: 52.8%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 475 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.2%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.5%-46.4%) win rate for white (30K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.4%-48.1%) win rate for white (9.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-53.4%) win rate for white (587 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Closed Variation is statistically balanced with a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.