TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Play This
Black Expected Score56.1%Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 56.7%Based on 19K games
0%56.1%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 56.7%
Outcome Distribution
54.2%3.8%42.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Bb6
Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation
Analyzen=19K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 56.1% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 56.7%), based on 19K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.8% win rate (125 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.4% win rate (198 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.7% win rate (429 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.4% win rate (1,132 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.0% win rate (2,287 games)
  • 1800-1999: 55.9% win rate (4,989 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.4% win rate (5,921 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.8% win rate (3,266 games)
  • 2500+: 39.8% win rate (309 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (82%), worst in Classical (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • Bullet: 54.3% win rate (4,957 games)
  • Blitz: 54.8% win rate (10,809 games)
  • Rapid: 52.2% win rate (2,759 games)
  • Classical: 44.7% win rate (127 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (46 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (57 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (163 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (497 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (584 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,219 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (861 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (3,309 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (760 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (59 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,464 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (3,579 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (856 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,800 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (190 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (207 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (101 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 42.0% (90% CI: 41.4%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.6% win rate for white (309 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (43.6%) outperforms Classical (47.1%) by -3.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 38.2%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 125 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 38.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 198 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 49.6% (90% CI: 45.6%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 429 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 42.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 39.1%-42.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 39.0%-41.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 39.6%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 43.0%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 309 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 42.4%-44.8%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 41.1% (90% CI: 40.3%-41.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-43.7%) win rate for white (2.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 39.9%-54.3%) win rate for white (127 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.2%.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.0% (90% CI: 41.4%-42.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.