Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation
19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.1%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.7%.
Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 19K
- Best context
- 58.5% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 52.7% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.2%
- Draws
- 3.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.7% at 0-999, 51.2% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (46 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (51 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (43 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (95 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (57 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 72.3% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (104 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (163 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (157 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (392 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (497 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (225 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (584 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (1,219 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (462 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (861 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (3,309 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (760 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.2% expected score (59 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (1,464 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (3,579 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (856 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (1,276 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,800 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (190 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (207 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (101 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation scores 56.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.6% and 56.7% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation, Black wins 54.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 42.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 57.9% (5.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 56.9% in Blitz (11K games) against 55.1% in Rapid (2.8K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 51.8%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 125 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 198 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.7%, draws 1.7% and loses 49.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 429 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 53.4%, draws 1.5% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 56.0%, draws 3.2% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 2.3K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 55.9%, draws 4.0% and loses 40.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 55.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.4%. It rests on 5.9K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 3.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 39.8%, draws 6.6% and loses 53.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 309 Lichess games, which average 42 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 54.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 54.8%, draws 4.1% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 52.2%, draws 5.7% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 44.7%, draws 8.2% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 127 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Center Holding Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 54.2% of its games and loses 42.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.