Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation
770 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
42.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 45.4%.
Measured over 770 games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 770 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 770
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.9%
- Draws
- 4.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 38.9% at 0-999, 16.7% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (9 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.2% expected score (44 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (100 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 32.0% expected score (29 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (145 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 35.3% expected score (56 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (29 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (106 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.6% expected score (35 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 59.9% expected score (44 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation scores 42.5% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 39.5% and 45.4% — from 770 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 770+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation, White wins 40.4%, draws 4.1% and loses 55.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.5%. It rests on 770 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 52.7% (56 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 44.1% in Blitz (477 games) against 40.5% in Rapid (172 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 46.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 160 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 36.2%, draws 6.6% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.5%. It rests on 235 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 38.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 58.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.4%. It rests on 170 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 38.3%, draws 4.8% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.8%. It rests on 112 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 42.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 54.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.1%. It rests on 477 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 38.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 40.5%. It rests on 172 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Mestel Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 40.4% of its games and loses 55.5%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.