Italian Game: Classical Variation
3.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
53.4%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.
Measured over 3.2M games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.2M games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 3.2M
- Best context
- 63.9% at 2000-2199 Classical
- Worst context
- 51.8% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.5%
- Draws
- 3.5%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 53.9% at 0-999, 59.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.4% expected score (63 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (29,203 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (47,400 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (24,752 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (152 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.8% expected score (163 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (71,479 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (131,106 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (59,348 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (1,066 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (225 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (115,405 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (267,281 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (111,246 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 55.4% expected score (3,089 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (430 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (142,300 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (396,799 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (173,257 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 55.6% expected score (6,963 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.8% expected score (86 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (137,725 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (426,854 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (186,836 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.2% expected score (9,281 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 86.8% expected score (8 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (109,510 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (321,912 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (130,573 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (5,254 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (62,741 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (108,926 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (36,707 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (709 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (26,728 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (16,809 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (4,688 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 76.2% expected score (54 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,673 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (550 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.7% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation scores 53.4% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.3% and 53.4% — from 3.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 3.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 3.2M rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 54.5% (263K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (1.7M games) against 54.3% in Rapid (727K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 52.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 102K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.1%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 263K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 52.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 497K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 51.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 720K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 51.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 761K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.0% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 567K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.4% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 209K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 56.3%, draws 0.6% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 980 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 51.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 699K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 51.3%, draws 3.6% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 1.7M Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 727K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 53.2%, draws 5.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 27K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 51.6% of its games and loses 44.9%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.