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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation

2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score53.2%Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 54.8%Based on 2.5K games
0%53.2%100%
Range (90% confident): 51.5% – 54.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.2%3.8%44.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
9...Be7
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation
Analyzen=2.5K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 53.2% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 51.5% and 54.8%), based on 2.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.4% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 31% → 42%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 31.4% win rate (16 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.4% win rate (115 games)
  • 1200-1399: 55.6% win rate (260 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.1% win rate (424 games)
  • 1600-1799: 55.2% win rate (481 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (394 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.8% win rate (412 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (331 games)
  • 2500+: 41.7% win rate (74 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (66%), worst in Bullet (46%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.4% win rate (611 games)
  • Blitz: 51.1% win rate (1,400 games)
  • Rapid: 56.6% win rate (462 games)
  • Classical: 66.2% win rate (34 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (43 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (75 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (52 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 36.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (214 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (111 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (122 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.5% expected score (18 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (245 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (91 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (95 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (46 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (105 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.9% expected score (202 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (19 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (331 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.5%) outperforms Rapid (38.1%) by 12.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 41.6% (90% CI: 34.2%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 35.4%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 260 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 45.5%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 424 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 40.3% (90% CI: 36.7%-44.0%) win rate for white, based on 481 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 38.3%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 43.4% (90% CI: 39.4%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 412 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 49.2%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 331 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.9%) win rate for white (611 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 45.2% (90% CI: 43.0%-47.4%) win rate for white (1.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation has a 38.1% (90% CI: 34.4%-41.8%) win rate for white (462 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Maróczy Variation is slightly favors black with a 44.9% (90% CI: 43.3%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.