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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation

160K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

51.7%

45%55%
Floor51.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.9%.

Measured over 160K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 160K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
160K
Best context
60.6% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
42.9% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
33 moves
Games that end decisively
96.1%
Draws
3.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +17.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 41.8% at 0-999, 54.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (2,143 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (3,641 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (1,443 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (4,428 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (9,841 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (5,137 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (12,089 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (8,080 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (228 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (5,273 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (13,562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (8,009 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (410 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (5,291 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13,824 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (6,574 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (488 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (4,303 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (14,011 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (5,452 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (4,697 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (10,686 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.3% expected score (2,240 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (83 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (4,564 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (5,430 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (789 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 60.6% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.7% expected score (420 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation scores 51.7% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.5% and 51.9% — from 160K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
160K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation, White wins 49.7%, draws 3.9% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 160K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 60.5% (2.0K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 52.3% in Blitz (84K games) against 49.5% in Rapid (38K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 44.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.3%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 50.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 26K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 51.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 52.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 53.6%, draws 5.3% and loses 41.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 57.6%, draws 5.8% and loses 36.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.5%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 51.2%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 37K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 50.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 84K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 47.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 38K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 46.9%, draws 6.1% and loses 47.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Kieseritzky Variation is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 49.7% of its games and loses 46.4%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.