94K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 47.9% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.7% and 48.2%), based on 94K Lichess games.
Improves with rating: 46% → 51%
Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Blitz (47%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 94K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (24K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (51.6%) outperforms Classical (49.0%) by 2.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.7% (90% CI: 49.0%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 916 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 2.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 1.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 44.3% (90% CI: 39.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 275 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.1%) win rate for white (28K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white (52K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 49.4% (90% CI: 48.7%-50.1%) win rate for white (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.5%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a 49.0% (90% CI: 45.5%-52.5%) win rate for white (553 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line is statistically balanced with a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.