Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Score a position

Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line

94K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
h8
g
f
e
d
c
b
a
5...Ba5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

47.9%

40%55%
Floor47.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.2%.

Measured over 94K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 94K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
94K
Best context
50.3% at 1000-1199 Blitz
Worst context
45.4% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
97.4%
Draws
2.6%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 48.4% at 0-999, 55.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (411 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (333 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (1,342 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (1,085 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (378 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (3,266 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (3,918 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1,016 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (4,262 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (9,475 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (2,342 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (59 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (5,579 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (14,430 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (4,045 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (255 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.1% expected score (5,825 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (13,656 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (3,911 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.8% expected score (180 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (4,410 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (7,186 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (1,966 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 26.7% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (1,412 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 42.0% expected score (277 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (68 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 65.8% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line scores 47.9% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 47.7% and 48.2% — from 94K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
94K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line, Black wins 46.6%, draws 2.6% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 94K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line performs best for Black at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (8.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 47.9% in Blitz (52K games) against 48.9% in Rapid (14K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line has a sharpness score of 97.4 (very decisive), meaning 97.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 51.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 916 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 48.1%, draws 1.5% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.1%, draws 1.9% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.6%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 46.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 51.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 46.1%, draws 3.3% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 46.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 50.5%, draws 5.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 275 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.6%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 28K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 46.5%, draws 2.7% and loses 50.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 52K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 14K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.2%. It rests on 553 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Main Line is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.6% of its games and loses 50.8%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.