Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation
36K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
46.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.
Measured over 36K games at this level and clock.
White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 36K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 36K
- Best context
- 52.4% at 1000-1199 Blitz
- Worst context
- 44.5% at 1400-1599 Rapid
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.2%
- Draws
- 2.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.2% at 0-999, 51.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (180 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.3% expected score (136 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (98 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (665 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (670 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (210 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (1,312 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (2,088 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (660 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 58.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (1,507 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (4,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,545 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (46 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (1,565 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (5,102 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (2,380 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (141 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,667 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (4,583 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.3% expected score (2,091 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.9% expected score (126 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (864 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (2,338 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (793 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.2% expected score (24 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (416 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (416 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (144 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (69 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation scores 46.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.2% and 47.1% — from 36K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 36K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation, White wins 45.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 36K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 54.4% (414 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (20K games) against 46.9% in Rapid (7.9K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 53.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 414 Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 49.7%, draws 1.5% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 44.3%, draws 2.1% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 44.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 53.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.1%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 44.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 52.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 9.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 46.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.8%. It rests on 8.5K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 44.2%, draws 3.8% and loses 52.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.1%. It rests on 4.0K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 45.9%, draws 5.5% and loses 48.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 977 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 49.3%, draws 8.0% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 105 Lichess games, which average 41 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.3%, draws 1.8% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 44.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 20K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 45.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 39.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 56.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 354 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Slow Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 45.2% of its games and loses 52.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.