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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit

99K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.0%

45%65%
Floor56.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.3%.

Measured over 99K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 99K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
99K
Best context
62.9% at 2500+ Bullet
Worst context
51.5% at 0-999 Bullet
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +21.3% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 59.6% at 0-999, 74.4% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.5% expected score (1,231 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (908 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (366 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.3% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (3,012 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (3,196 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,135 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (4,227 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (6,126 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,614 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 69.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 79.8% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (4,572 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (8,856 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (4,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 65.2% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (5,631 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (10,330 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (4,348 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (258 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (5,293 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (10,459 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (3,762 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.4% expected score (238 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 76.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (4,352 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (5,990 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (1,863 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.3% expected score (81 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (3,000 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 62.4% expected score (1,282 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 66.0% expected score (356 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (621 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 77.0% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (10)
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack
46.8%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Janowski Defense
48.9%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Spielmann Defense
57.8%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Walbrodt-Baird Gambit
55.2%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense
50.0%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Anderssen Attack
47.6%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Double Gambit Accepted
46.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit
52.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack Accepted
54.3%
Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Max Lange Attack, Long Variation
50.2%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit scores 57.0% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.7% and 57.3% — from 99K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
99K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, White wins 55.3%, draws 3.4% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 99K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit performs best for White at 2500+, with an Expected Score of 63.7% (654 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 57.6% in Blitz (47K games) against 58.3% in Rapid (18K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 51.3%, draws 2.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 54.0%, draws 2.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 7.4K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 54.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 56.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 18K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 55.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.9%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 55.1%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 20K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 56.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 39.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.6%. It rests on 12K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 55.3%, draws 5.2% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 4.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 60.3%, draws 6.8% and loses 32.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.7%. It rests on 654 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 59.3%, draws 1.1% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.9%. It rests on 141 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.9%, draws 2.5% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 47K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 56.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 39.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.3%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 59.7%, draws 6.8% and loses 33.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.1%. It rests on 790 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.3% of its games and loses 41.3%. It performs best at 2500+. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.