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Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit

2.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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h8
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3...f5
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.3%

45%60%
Floor53.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.4M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.4M
Best context
54.9% at 1200-1399 Classical
Worst context
39.0% at 2000-2199 Classical
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
97.2%
Draws
2.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +7.0% · Breakpoint: Never

How to Beat This (Move 3)

Best: 3...f5 · Black wins: 52.0% · 2.1M games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 54.4% at 0-999, 44.2% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 64.7% expected score (36 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (24,152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (34,780 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (13,830 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (67 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.3% expected score (104 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (56,585 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (99,276 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (39,377 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.4% expected score (401 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (185 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (89,474 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (193,261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (82,914 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 54.9% expected score (1,853 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (111,586 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (297,621 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (124,826 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (5,014 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 41.7% expected score (89 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (110,751 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (317,852 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (147,882 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (7,017 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 27.6% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (95,473 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (228,643 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (101,791 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (3,474 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 71.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (69,263 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (79,468 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (28,064 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (622 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (38,542 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (10,807 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (2,486 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (3,381 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (276 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit scores 53.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.2% and 53.3% — from 2.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit, Black wins 51.9%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 2.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 53.9% (539K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.1% in Blitz (1.3M games) against 52.9% in Rapid (541K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.2 (very decisive), meaning 97.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.4%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.6%. It rests on 73K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 196K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 368K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 539K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 584K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 429K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.5%. It rests on 177K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.6%, draws 3.8% and loses 47.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 45.3%, draws 1.2% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 730 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 53.0%, draws 2.0% and loses 45.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 599K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.9%. It rests on 541K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 51.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Rousseau Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.9% of its games and loses 45.4%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.