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Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined

278K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

52.7%

45%60%
Floor52.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.8%.

Measured over 278K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 278K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
278K
Best context
54.6% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
48.5% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.1%
Draws
2.9%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 46.9% at 0-999, 52.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,128 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (2,066 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (590 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 31.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (6,876 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (9,811 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 51.9% expected score (25 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (11,703 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (26,013 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (6,969 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (12,411 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (37,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (13,284 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.9% expected score (308 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (11,953 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (36,568 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (13,998 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (10,108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (27,827 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (9,237 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.8% expected score (366 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (7,075 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (14,275 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.0% expected score (3,494 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.1% expected score (90 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (4,205 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (4,022 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (868 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.7% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (891 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (319 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (3)
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Showalter Variation
45.9%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation
44.3%
Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Lange Variation
37.2%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined scores 52.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 52.5% and 52.8% — from 278K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
278K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 278K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 53.2% (48K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 53.0% in Blitz (159K games) against 52.2% in Rapid (51K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 1.9% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 4.8K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.1%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.2%, draws 2.5% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.5%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 51.0%, draws 2.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 64K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 51.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 63K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 48K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 25K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.3%. It rests on 9.1K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 49.9%, draws 6.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 51.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 67K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 159K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 50.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.0%, draws 5.3% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.2% of its games and loses 45.9%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.