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Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation

4.6K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Bb2
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

45.9%

40%55%
Floor44.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 4.6K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

White comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.6K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
4.6K
Best context
45.0% at 1400-1599 Blitz
Worst context
43.7% at 1600-1799 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: −12.3% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 38.0% at 0-999, 62.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (22 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.2% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 11.5% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 44.7% expected score (55 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (116 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.5% expected score (111 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (459 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 43.1% expected score (115 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (664 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (256 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (319 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 38.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (489 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 36.4% expected score (212 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 8.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (268 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (79 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (56 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (96 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation scores 45.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 44.6% and 47.1% — from 4.6K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
4.6K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation, White wins 44.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 4.6K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation performs best for White at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 46.3% (1.1K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (2.8K games) against 45.4% in Rapid (1.0K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 47.9%, draws 2.2% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 202 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 44.3%, draws 3.1% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 690 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 44.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 53.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 44.8%, draws 3.0% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.3%. It rests on 1.1K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 41.9%, draws 3.2% and loses 54.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.5%. It rests on 858 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.2%, draws 4.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 442 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 45.1%, draws 5.6% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.9%. It rests on 168 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 43.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 54.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.8%. It rests on 752 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 44.6%, draws 3.6% and loses 51.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 2.8K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 44.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 53.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.4%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit Declined, Cordel Variation is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 44.3% of its games and loses 52.6%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.