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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation

9.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score55.5%Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 56.4%Based on 9.1K games
0%55.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.7% – 56.4%
Outcome Distribution
53.9%3.1%43.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
7...Bg4
Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation
Analyzen=9.1K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.1%

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 55.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.7% and 56.4%), based on 9.1K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.6% win rate (46 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.2% win rate (151 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.7% win rate (459 games)
  • 1400-1599: 54.2% win rate (1,028 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.3% win rate (1,959 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.6% win rate (2,459 games)
  • 2000-2199: 54.1% win rate (1,949 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (985 games)
  • 2500+: 50.3% win rate (83 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Similar across time controls (~55%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 53.8% win rate (2,501 games)
  • Blitz: 53.6% win rate (5,031 games)
  • Rapid: 55.2% win rate (1,509 games)
  • Classical: 54.7% win rate (78 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (284 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (401 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (534 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (447 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (151 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (43.8%) outperforms Classical (37.1%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.3%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.9%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 985 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.2%-45.5%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.1%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 39.7%-43.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.