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Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation

9.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.5%

45%60%
Floor54.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.4%.

Measured over 9.1K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 9.1K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
9.1K
Best context
57.3% at 2000-2199 Blitz
Worst context
54.3% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.9%
Draws
3.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.9% at 0-999, 56.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 63.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (41 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (79 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (139 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (235 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.3% expected score (84 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (284 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.9% expected score (173 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 57.5% expected score (379 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (401 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 67.8% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (534 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (1,444 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (447 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 66.9% expected score (34 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (527 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (1,143 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.2% expected score (269 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (510 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (386 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (87 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (75 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation scores 55.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.7% and 56.4% — from 9.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
9.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation, Black wins 53.9%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 9.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 56.0% (2.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 55.3% in Blitz (5.0K games) against 56.8% in Rapid (1.5K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 50.2%, draws 1.6% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 151 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 53.7%, draws 1.0% and loses 45.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 459 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.2%, draws 3.0% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.7%. It rests on 1.0K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 54.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 54.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 54.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.6%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 985 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 53.6%, draws 3.4% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 5.0K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 55.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.9% of its games and loses 43.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.