9.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 44.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 43.7% and 45.4%), based on 9.1K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 47% → 43%
Best in Bullet (44%), worst in Classical (37%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 48.2% win rate for white (151 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (43.8%) outperforms Classical (37.1%) by 6.7%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.9 (very decisive), meaning 96.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 48.2% (90% CI: 41.6%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 151 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 45.3% (90% CI: 41.5%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 459 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.0% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.3%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 40.9%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 41.0%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 42.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-44.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.2% (90% CI: 40.6%-45.8%) win rate for white, based on 985 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.8% (90% CI: 42.2%-45.5%) win rate for white (2.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.1%) win rate for white (5.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation has a 41.7% (90% CI: 39.7%-43.8%) win rate for white (1.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Alapin-Steinitz Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.1%-43.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.