Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense
194K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
48.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 48.4%.
Measured over 194K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 194K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 194K
- Best context
- 55.4% at 1000-1199 Rapid
- Worst context
- 43.8% at 2200-2499 Rapid
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 60.6% at 0-999, 48.6% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (668 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (360 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (126 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,521 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (2,129 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (505 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.3% expected score (18 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (5,506 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (7,812 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (2,000 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 20.4% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (8,043 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (18,848 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (5,125 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.2% expected score (170 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (6 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (10,635 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (30,015 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (9,179 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (409 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (9,985 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (30,835 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (9,974 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.3% expected score (470 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (7,319 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (15,795 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (4,244 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (128 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (5,425 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (4,013 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.8% expected score (720 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,124 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (175 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (15 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense scores 48.2% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.0% and 48.4% — from 194K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 194K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense, Black wins 46.4%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 194K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (1.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 48.2% in Blitz (110K games) against 48.3% in Rapid (32K games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 55.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 43.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 51.1%, draws 1.7% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 49.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 15K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 47.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 32K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 46.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.5%. It rests on 50K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.5%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.5%. It rests on 51K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 44.4%, draws 4.5% and loses 51.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.7%. It rests on 27K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 43.0%, draws 5.2% and loses 51.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 10K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 42.2%, draws 7.3% and loses 50.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.9%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 46.9%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 51K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 46.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 49.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.2%. It rests on 110K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 45.9%, draws 4.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.3%. It rests on 32K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.9% and loses 50.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.6%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, de Riviere Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 46.4% of its games and loses 50.0%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.