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Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit

41K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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6.Nc3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.8%

45%60%
Floor54.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.2%.

Measured over 41K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 5.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 41K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
41K
Best context
66.3% at 1200-1399 Rapid
Worst context
50.8% at 2000-2199 Rapid
Average game length
29 moves
Games that end decisively
95.0%
Draws
5.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +20.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 93.9 · Trap factor: +24.8 · 41K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 56.1% at 0-999, 54.1% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.6% expected score (168 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (266 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (99 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 62.9% expected score (271 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 63.5% expected score (630 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (369 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (656 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.3% expected score (549 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (435 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (746 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (431 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 59.5% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.0% expected score (875 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.4% expected score (1,462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (493 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (4,553 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (801 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (2,503 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (8,787 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,309 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.5% expected score (60 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (4,367 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (6,027 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (867 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (1,792 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (347 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 51.8% expected score (27 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit scores 54.8% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.3% and 55.2% — from 41K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
41K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit, White wins 52.3%, draws 5.0% and loses 42.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 41K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit performs best for White at 1200-1399, with an Expected Score of 62.1% (1.6K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.7% in Blitz (23K games) against 55.1% in Rapid (4.9K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.0 (very decisive), meaning 95.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 56.0%, draws 1.6% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.8%. It rests on 533 Lichess games, which average 20 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 60.5%, draws 2.5% and loses 37.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 21 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 60.8%, draws 2.4% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.1%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 57.4%, draws 2.1% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.5%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 54.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 2.9K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.1%, draws 3.9% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 7.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 13K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.5% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 52.9%, draws 6.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 52.8%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 13K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 5.6% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 23K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 52.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 4.9K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 52.4%, draws 9.5% and loses 38.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 194 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Scotch Gambit, Nakhmanson Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.3% of its games and loses 42.8%. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.