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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack

115K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

50.3%

45%55%
Floor50.0%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 50.5%.

Measured over 115K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 115K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
115K
Best context
53.1% at 1800-1999 Rapid
Worst context
47.5% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Average game length
28 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +5.0% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 52.2%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (2,685 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (3,094 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (2,426 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.1% expected score (54 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.3% expected score (5,136 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.0% expected score (7,268 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (3,739 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (68 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (66 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,097 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (9,641 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (6,068 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 40.7% expected score (127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 52.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (6,248 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (9,571 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (5,693 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 49.0% expected score (231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (5,895 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.0% expected score (9,158 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.9% expected score (3,967 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.1% expected score (191 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (8,425 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (2,664 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (2,948 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (4,415 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (962 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (23 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (1,802 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (1,051 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (176 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (234 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Continuations (3)
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Knight Sacrifice Line
49.6%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Bishop Sacrifice Line
53.1%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, King March Line
43.1%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack scores 50.3% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.0% and 50.5% — from 115K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
115K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack, Black wins 48.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 115K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 51.9% (19K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.9% in Blitz (53K games) against 49.7% in Rapid (26K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 8.2K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 47.5%, draws 2.4% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 48.0%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.5%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 50.4%, draws 2.9% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.9%. It rests on 19K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 49.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.2% and loses 46.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 8.3K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 48.9%, draws 4.8% and loses 46.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 3.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.5%, draws 4.6% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 247 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 44.4%, draws 1.8% and loses 53.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 198 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 2.0% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.8%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 49.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 47.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.9%. It rests on 53K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 47.8%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.7%. It rests on 26K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 46.2%, draws 3.6% and loses 50.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.0%. It rests on 733 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Traxler Counterattack is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.7% of its games and loses 48.2%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.