Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense
12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.8%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.5%.
Measured over 12K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.6 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 12K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 12K
- Best context
- 57.7% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Worst context
- 52.7% at 1400-1599 Blitz
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.4%
- Draws
- 3.6%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 57.6% at 0-999, 54.1% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (46 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (71 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 63.8% expected score (53 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (91 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (194 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (109 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (219 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (332 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (218 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (377 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (537 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (289 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (445 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (881 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (350 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.0% expected score (20 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (594 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (1,555 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (339 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.9% expected score (28 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 57.8% expected score (778 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (1,974 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (360 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.2% expected score (795 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (832 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (138 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (193 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.8% expected score (82 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 55.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.0% and 56.5% — from 12K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 12K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 55.8% (range, 90% confident: 55.0% – 56.5%) for Black, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense perform best?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense performs best at 2000-2199, where it scores 57.1% for Black (3.1K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Blitz (55.9%) outperforms Classical (48.7%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 58.2% (range, 90% confident: 52.0% – 64.3%) for Black, based on 170 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 51.1% (range, 90% confident: 47.0% – 55.3%) for Black, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 53.1% (range, 90% confident: 50.2% – 56.1%) for Black, based on 777 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 54.7% (range, 90% confident: 52.3% – 57.0%) for Black, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 54.6% (range, 90% confident: 52.6% – 56.5%) for Black, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 56.0% (range, 90% confident: 54.4% – 57.6%) for Black, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 57.1% (range, 90% confident: 55.6% – 58.6%) for Black, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 57.1% (range, 90% confident: 55.2% – 59.1%) for Black, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 54.3% (range, 90% confident: 49.4% – 59.2%) for Black, based on 277 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 55.5% (range, 90% confident: 54.1% – 56.9%) for Black (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 55.9% (range, 90% confident: 54.9% – 56.9%) for Black (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
What is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense scores 56.1% (range, 90% confident: 54.3% – 58.0%) for Black (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
Is the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense a good opening?
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense is good for Black with a 42.5% (range, 90% confident: 41.7% – 43.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.