12K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 55.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 56.5%), based on 12K Lichess games.
Declines with rating: 56% → 52%
Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (45%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.7%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 47.7% win rate for white (394 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (43.2%) outperforms Classical (47.8%) by -4.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 39.9% (90% CI: 33.9%-46.1%) win rate for white, based on 170 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 47.7% (90% CI: 43.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 394 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 46.1% (90% CI: 43.1%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 777 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 44.0% (90% CI: 41.7%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 44.3% (90% CI: 42.4%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 42.3% (90% CI: 40.7%-43.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 40.6% (90% CI: 39.2%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 40.5% (90% CI: 38.6%-42.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 42.9% (90% CI: 38.1%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 277 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 43.2% (90% CI: 41.8%-44.6%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 42.2% (90% CI: 41.2%-43.2%) win rate for white (6.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense has a 41.8% (90% CI: 39.9%-43.6%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
The Italian Game: Evans Gambit, Lasker Defense is slightly favors black with a 42.5% (90% CI: 41.7%-43.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.