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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation

3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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9.Kg3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

55.3%

45%60%
Floor53.8%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.7%.

Measured over 3.1K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.1K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.1K
Best context
not measured yet
Average game length
30 moves
Games that end decisively
96.8%
Draws
3.2%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 96.3 · Trap factor: −19.8 · 3.1K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 55.2% at 0-999, 65.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 72.5% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 71.7% expected score (40 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 43.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (107 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (59 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (62 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (179 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (139 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (396 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (164 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 46.5% expected score (27 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (156 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (404 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (270 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (157 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (148 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 60.0% expected score (134 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 74.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.6% expected score (20 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation scores 55.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.8% and 56.7% — from 3.1K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.1K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation, White wins 53.7%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 62.4% (313 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 55.5% in Blitz (1.5K games) against 55.1% in Rapid (791 games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation has a sharpness score of 96.8 (very decisive), meaning 96.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 61.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 37.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 101 Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 48.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.3%. It rests on 206 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 48.0%, draws 4.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.4%. It rests on 385 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 52.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 45.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 721 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.1%. It rests on 790 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.9%, draws 3.9% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 550 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 60.9%, draws 3.0% and loses 36.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.4%. It rests on 313 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 55.0%, draws 1.5% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.8%. It rests on 743 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 53.5%, draws 4.0% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.5%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 53.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 791 Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Ghulam-Kassim Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.7% of its games and loses 43.1%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.