Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack
418 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
50.2%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.2%.
Measured over 418 games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for White
Draw 6.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 418 games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 418
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 33 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 93.9%
- Draws
- 6.1%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 30.0% at 1400-1599, 47.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1200-1399 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1400-1599 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | — | |||
| 2000-2199 | — | — | |||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 41.3% expected score (10 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (45 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 33.9% expected score (14 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (90 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.0% expected score (23 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (82 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (80 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (14 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (15 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack scores 50.2% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.1% and 54.2% — from 418 Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 418+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack, White wins 47.1%, draws 6.1% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.2%. It rests on 418 rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack perform best?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 53.4% (177 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 51.3% in Blitz (231 games) against 46.4% in Rapid (54 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack has a sharpness score of 93.9 (decisive), meaning 93.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.5%, draws 6.2% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.6%. It rests on 135 Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 50.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 177 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 46.4%, draws 5.7% and loses 47.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 131 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 48.4%, draws 5.8% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.3%. It rests on 231 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack a good opening?
The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Moeller-Bayonet Attack is hard work for White — it favours Black. Across all ratings, White wins 47.1% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.