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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit

549K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nxe4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.7%

45%60%
Floor54.6%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.9%.

Measured over 549K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 549K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
549K
Best context
58.7% at 1600-1799 Bullet
Worst context
44.6% at 0-999 Rapid
Average game length
25 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +11.7% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 89.1 · Trap factor: −6.8 · 549K games

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.6% · UltraBullet best · Bullet worst

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 48.7% at 0-999, 45.0% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (58 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.0% expected score (13,083 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (21,816 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (16,467 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 46.6% expected score (146 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.8% expected score (124 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (21,574 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (40,941 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (21,665 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (491 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 39.7% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (23,997 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (56,336 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (34,212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (1,127 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 45.5% expected score (97 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (24,755 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (56,030 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (36,900 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (1,974 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 22.7% expected score (15 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (20,312 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (46,965 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (24,651 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.7% expected score (1,457 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (14,573 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (28,048 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (12,629 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.6% expected score (486 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (8,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (10,346 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (3,351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (50 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.5% expected score (3,223 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (1,749 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.8% expected score (335 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (457 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 39.5% expected score (79 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit scores 54.7% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.6% and 54.9% — from 549K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
549K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit, Black wins 53.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 549K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 56.1% (120K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.1% in Blitz (262K games) against 52.8% in Rapid (150K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.9%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 52K Lichess games, which average 20 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 85K Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 54.6%, draws 2.4% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.9%. It rests on 116K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 54.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.1%. It rests on 120K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 54.6%, draws 2.8% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 93K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 52.8%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 56K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 52.1%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.9%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 46.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 5.3K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 46.4%, draws 4.7% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 536 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 41.0%, draws 0.8% and loses 58.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.4%. It rests on 456 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 55.6%, draws 1.7% and loses 42.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.5%. It rests on 130K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 53.7%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 262K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 51.2%, draws 3.1% and loses 45.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.8%. It rests on 150K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 5.7K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 53.4% of its games and loses 44.0%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.