549K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 54.7% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 54.6% and 54.9%), based on 549K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~48%)
Best in Bullet (56%), worst in UltraBullet (41%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 549K rated games from Lichess.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 49.4% win rate for white (52K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
UltraBullet (58.3%) outperforms Bullet (42.7%) by 15.6%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 49.4% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 52K Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.9% (90% CI: 44.7%-45.2%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.2%) win rate for white, based on 116K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 120K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.4%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 93K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.7%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 56K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 44.3% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 48.8% (90% CI: 45.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 536 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 58.3% (90% CI: 54.4%-62.0%) win rate for white (456 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.8%.
In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 42.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-42.9%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.7%.
In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 43.5% (90% CI: 43.3%-43.6%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.4%-45.9%) win rate for white (150K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
In Classical games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Ponziani-Steinitz Gambit is slightly favors black with a 44.0% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.