Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation
2.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.6%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.2%.
Measured over 2.5K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.5K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.5K
- Best context
- 63.4% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 53.6% at 2000-2199 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.2%
- Draws
- 4.8%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 50.6%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (15 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 20.3% expected score (17 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.9% expected score (15 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (37 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (79 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.3% expected score (65 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (334 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (52 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 27.0% expected score (5 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (108 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (604 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (157 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (73 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (713 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.5% expected score (35 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (33 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 62.2% expected score (48 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation scores 56.6% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.0% and 58.2% — from 2.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation, White wins 54.2%, draws 4.8% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 2.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation performs best for White at 2200-2499, with an Expected Score of 63.0% (823 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.9% in Blitz (1.8K games) against 52.1% in Rapid (311 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 50.5%, draws 5.5% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 152 Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 53.7%, draws 5.8% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.6%. It rests on 456 Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 51.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 870 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 60.2%, draws 5.5% and loses 34.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.0%. It rests on 823 Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.5%. It rests on 345 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 55.2%, draws 5.3% and loses 39.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.9%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 50.4%, draws 3.4% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 311 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Giuoco Piano, Steinitz Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 54.2% of its games and loses 41.0%. It performs best at 2200-2499. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.