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Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line

989K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

8
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a1
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6.cxd4
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

54.3%

45%60%
Floor54.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 54.4%.

Measured over 989K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 4.1 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 989K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
989K
Best context
57.3% at 2500+ Blitz
Worst context
52.2% at 2200-2499 Bullet
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
95.9%
Draws
4.1%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.2% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 91.4 · Trap factor: +10.1 · 989K games

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 56.2%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 65.1% expected score (25 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (14,425 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (21,868 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (16,697 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (113 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (33,075 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (52,342 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (32,900 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 53.3% expected score (646 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 62.6% expected score (78 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (45,708 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (87,289 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (50,353 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (1,803 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (50,845 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (107,123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (60,166 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (3,457 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (23 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (44,294 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (94,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (50,713 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.6% expected score (3,623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (33,847 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (64,580 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (31,512 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 53.6% expected score (1,834 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (20,623 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (26,602 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (11,662 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (10,856 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (8,361 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (2,302 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (80 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (2,758 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (1,403 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (88 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line scores 54.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 54.2% and 54.4% — from 989K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
989K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line, White wins 52.2%, draws 4.1% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 989K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line perform best?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 55.4% (119K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 54.0% in Blitz (464K games) against 54.4% in Rapid (256K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line has a sharpness score of 95.9 (very decisive), meaning 95.9% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.4% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 53K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 53.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 119K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 53.2%, draws 3.3% and loses 43.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 185K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 52.7%, draws 3.7% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 222K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 51.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.8%. It rests on 193K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 50.8%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 132K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 50.2%, draws 6.0% and loses 43.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 48.9%, draws 8.2% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 49.0%, draws 11.8% and loses 39.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.9%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games, which average 43 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, White wins 55.3%, draws 0.6% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 269 Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 53.2%, draws 2.8% and loses 44.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 256K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 464K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 51.9%, draws 4.9% and loses 43.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.4%. It rests on 256K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 51.1%, draws 6.4% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 12K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line a good opening?

The Italian Game: Classical Variation, Greco Gambit, Traditional Line is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 52.2% of its games and loses 43.7%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.