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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation

2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
Black Expected Score51.0%Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 52.5%Based on 2.9K games
0%51.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.4% – 52.5%
Outcome Distribution
48.7%4.4%46.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
10...Qc7
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation
Analyzen=2.9K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 51.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.4% and 52.5%), based on 2.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -0.4% · Breakpoint: 1200-1399

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 82% → 30%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 81.8% win rate (4 games)
  • 1000-1199: 61.0% win rate (19 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.0% win rate (56 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.5% win rate (159 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.3% win rate (403 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (919 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (766 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.0% win rate (527 games)
  • 2500+: 29.9% win rate (37 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (67%), worst in Blitz (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 48.9% win rate (870 games)
  • Blitz: 47.5% win rate (1,614 games)
  • Rapid: 51.9% win rate (379 games)
  • Classical: 67.3% win rate (26 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (117 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (229 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (53 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (186 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (584 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (134 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (181 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (469 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (113 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (278 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.3%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 48.8% win rate for white (403 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (47.8%) outperforms Rapid (43.5%) by 4.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 43.1%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 0.9% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 403 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 44.4%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 919 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 44.6% (90% CI: 41.7%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 766 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 47.2% (90% CI: 43.6%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 527 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 44.6%-50.1%) win rate for white (870 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 47.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.8%) win rate for white (1.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a 43.5% (90% CI: 39.3%-47.7%) win rate for white (379 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation is slightly favors black with a 46.8% (90% CI: 45.3%-48.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.