Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation
2.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 52.5%.
Measured over 2.9K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.9K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 2.9K
- Best context
- 50.5% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Average game length
- 36 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 86.4% at 0-999, 34.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 86.4% expected score (4 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (6 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 78.0% expected score (11 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (20 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 69.1% expected score (9 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (47 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (75 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.4% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (117 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (229 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (53 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (186 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (584 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (134 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.3% expected score (15 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (181 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (469 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (113 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (278 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (214 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (35 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 33.1% expected score (31 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 36.7% expected score (6 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation scores 51.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 49.4% and 52.5% — from 2.9K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 2.9K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate?
Playing the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation, Black wins 48.7%, draws 4.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.0%. It rests on 2.9K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation perform best?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 53.0% (766 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 49.9% in Blitz (1.6K games) against 54.2% in Rapid (379 games).
How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 49.5%, draws 0.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 159 Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 47.3%, draws 3.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 403 Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 48.5%, draws 4.4% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 919 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.6%, draws 4.8% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 766 Lichess games, which average 38 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 47.0%, draws 5.8% and loses 47.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 527 Lichess games, which average 39 moves.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 48.9%, draws 3.7% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.8%. It rests on 870 Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 47.5%, draws 4.7% and loses 47.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games.
What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 51.9%, draws 4.6% and loses 43.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 379 Lichess games.
Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation a good opening?
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Göring Variation is about level. Across all ratings, Black wins 48.7% of its games and loses 46.8%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.