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Italian Game: Bird's Attack

167K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

48.9%

45%55%
Floor48.7%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 49.1%.

Measured over 167K games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 167K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
167K
Best context
52.2% at 1200-1399 Bullet
Worst context
43.6% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
32 moves
Games that end decisively
96.6%
Draws
3.4%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 49.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (1,987 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (2,975 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (1,557 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (4,702 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (8,728 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (3,427 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 67.3% expected score (13 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (6,885 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (16,326 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (7,175 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (145 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.6% expected score (13 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (7,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (21,573 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (11,029 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 47.2% expected score (451 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (6,543 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (18,299 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (10,824 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.6% expected score (566 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (4,414 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (12,629 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (6,010 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (636 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (2,827 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.4% expected score (4,179 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (1,839 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (101 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (1,390 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (915 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (327 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (363 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (32 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Paris Defense
50.2%
Italian Game: Giuoco Piano
47.0%
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Modern Bishop's Opening
50.6%
Italian Game: Giuoco Pianissimo, Normal
49.3%
Analyze Italian Game: Bird's Attack PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Italian Game: Bird's Attack scores 48.9% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 48.7% and 49.1% — from 167K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
167K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate?

Playing the Italian Game: Bird's Attack, White wins 47.2%, draws 3.4% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 167K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Bird's Attack perform best?

The Italian Game: Bird's Attack performs best for White at 1000-1199, with an Expected Score of 50.0% (17K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the Italian Game: Bird's Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 48.7% in Blitz (86K games) against 47.4% in Rapid (42K games).

How sharp is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack?

The Italian Game: Bird's Attack has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, White wins 48.6%, draws 2.5% and loses 48.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.9%. It rests on 6.5K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, White wins 48.7%, draws 2.4% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.0%. It rests on 17K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 47.6%, draws 2.7% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.0%. It rests on 31K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 46.8%, draws 3.1% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 40K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 47.0%, draws 3.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.8%. It rests on 36K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 46.6%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 24K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 45.9%, draws 4.2% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.1%. It rests on 8.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 47.8%, draws 5.4% and loses 46.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 2.5K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 41.7%, draws 20.8% and loses 37.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 726 Lichess games, which average 50 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 50.1%, draws 2.2% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.2%. It rests on 36K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 46.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.7%. It rests on 86K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 45.4%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 42K Lichess games.

What is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 42.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.6%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games.

Is the Italian Game: Bird's Attack a good opening?

The Italian Game: Bird's Attack is about level. Across all ratings, White wins 47.2% of its games and loses 49.4%. It performs best at 1000-1199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.